Analysis Of Neighborhood Dynamics Of Forest Ecosystems Using Likelihood Methods And Modeling

Advances in computing power in the past 20 years have led to a proliferation of spatially explicit, individual-based models of population and ecosystem dynamics. In forest ecosystems, the individual-based models encapsulate an emerging theory of “neighborhood” dynamics, in which fine-scale spatial interactions regulate the demography of component tree species. The spatial distribution of component species, in turn, regulates spatial variation in a whole host of community and ecosystem properties, with subsequent feedbacks on component species. The development of these models has been facilitated by development of new methods of analysis of field data, in which critical demographic rates and ecosystem processes are analyzed in terms of the spatial distributions of neighboring trees and physical environmental factors. The analyses are based on likelihood methods and information theory, and they allow a tight linkage between the models and explicit parameterization of the models from field data. Maximum likelihood methods have a long history of use for point and interval estimation in statistics. In contrast, likelihood principles have only more gradually emerged in ecology as the foundation for an alternative to traditional hypothesis testing. The alternative framework stresses the process of identifying and selecting among competing models, or in the simplest case, among competing point estimates of a parameter of a model. There are four general steps involved in a likelihood analysis: (1) model specification, (2) parameter estimation using maximum likelihood methods, (3) model comparison, and (4) model evaluation. Our goal in this paper is to review recent developments in the use of likelihood methods and modeling for the analysis of neighborhood processes in forest ecosystems. We will focus on a single class of processes, seed dispersal and seedling dispersion, because recent papers provide compelling evidence of the potential power of the approach, and illustrate some of the statistical challenges in applying the methods

A Model of Simultaneous Evolution of Competitive Ability and Herbivore Resistance in a Perennial Plant

Plant populations often experience the joint effects of intraspecific competition and herbivory, yet the impact of the interaction of these two factors on the outcome of evolution is largely unknown. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to examine interactions between the evolution of herbivore resistance and competitive ability in the goldenrod Solidago altissima. We define competitive ability as either competitive effect, the ability of a plant to deplete resources and make them unavailable to competitors, or competitive response, the ability to grow, survive, and reproduce despite depletion of resources by neighboring competitors. We considered symmetric and asymmetric modes of competition and explored the following questions: (1) Does the selective effect of competition differ for the two components of competitive ability? (2) What are the effects of the evolution of competitive ability and resistance on each other? (3) Can trade-offs between competitive ability and resistance emerge, given no relationship between these two traits prior to selection? Our results showed that competitive response evolved quickly regardless of the mode of competition, but self-suppression hindered the evolution of competitive effect. The evolution of resistance appeared to be independent of the evolution of competitive ability. Intraspecific competition was the major selective force in our model. At natural levels of herbivory, selection for resistance played a secondary role in structuring the population. Resistant genotypes were only favored at very low resistance costs. At high cost levels, the costs of maintaining resistance far outweighed the benefits. The selective forces of competition and herbivory resulted in trade-offs between competitive response and herbivore resistance, but only at low costs of resistance. Vigorous growth associated with a high competitive response might translate into trade-offs between herbivore tolerance and resistance. The strong selective effects of competitors, coupled with the weaker selection from herbivores, suggest that plant traits directly associated with growth that confer tolerance to both competitors and consumers may be the targets of selection

The advantage of the extremes: tree seedlings at intermediate abundance in a tropical forest have the highest richness of above-ground enemies and suffer the most damage

1. Tropical forest tree diversity has been hypothesized to be maintained via the attraction of density responsive and species-specific enemies. Tests of this hypothesis usually assume a linear relationship between enemy pressure (amount of damage and enemy richness) and seedling or tree density. However, enemy pressure is likely to change nonlinearly with local seedling abundance and community scale tree abundance if enemies are characterized by nonlinear functional responses. 2. We examined the abiotic and biotic factors associated with richness of above-ground enemies and foliar damage found in tree seedlings in a tropical forest in Puerto Rico. Rather than identify specific enemies targeting these seedlings, we used damage morphotypes, a paleo-ecological method, to derive a proxy for enemy species richness. 3. We found that the relationships between local and (conspecific seedling density) community scale (conspecific basal area of adult trees) abundance and both richness of above-ground enemies and foliar damage were hump-shaped. Seedlings of tree species existing at intermediate levels of abundance, at both local and community scales, suffered more damage and experienced pressure from a greater diversity of enemies than those existing at high or low densities. 4. We hypothesized that greater damage at intermediate abundance level could arise from a rich mixture of generalist and specialist enemies targeting seedlings of intermediate abundance tree species. Consistent with this hypothesis, we found that generalist enemies were more diverse on species at rare or intermediate abundance relative to common tree species. However, specialist enemies showed no significant trend across tree species abundance at either the local or community scales. 5. Synthesis. Our results suggest that interspecific variation in tree species abundance leads to differences in the magnitude and type of damage tropical tree seedlings suffer. This variation leads to a nonlinear, hump-shaped relationship between species abundance and enemy damage, highlighting fruitful directions for further development of species coexistence theory

Analysis of the autonomy and the regulations of the private higher education in Mexico

According to the Mexican law, private individuals are allowed to grant higher education as long as they fulfill the established requirements. Different a priori (legislation, agreements, basic requirements and approvals) and a posteriori (supervisions and recognition of degrees) instruments are used by multiple authorities to regulate the system, constraining mainly the academic autonomy of the higher education institutions. However, these mechanisms seem not to be sufficient because, in recent years, many low quality private higher education institutions have flourished. Therefore, in order to understand how these regulations constrain or enhance the institutions’ capacities and explore their role in the proliferation of low quality institutions, this study analyzes in depth the nature of the private higher education in Mexico, the current mechanisms that regulate the sector, and the different degree of the autonomy that they enjoy in their several dimensions. To achieve the purpose of this study, a qualitative research, and more specifically, an exploratory qualitative inquiry research, has been carried out. Hence, first of all, this research starts by analyzing the private higher education and the characteristics of the autonomy it enjoys, as well as the current mechanisms that exist for its regulation. Second, it reviews the policy documents that today regulate the private higher education in Mexico (The Mexican Constitution, The General Law of Education, The Law for the Coordination of Higher Education, the Agreement 243 and the Agreement 17/11/17), and the contributions that other authors have made over time, to have a better understanding of the phenomenon. Third, it analyzes the information collected in several interviews, in order to comprehend the interpretations of those involved in the phenomenon. Thus, a purposive sampling was selected and semi-structured interviews were carried out to explore the perspectives of different actors that are part of the higher education system in Mexico, playing diverse roles in the field, and with varied working experiences in different institutions. The findings of this research reveal that private higher education in Mexico is perceived as a fundamental sector of the tertiary education level, playing a specific role for the formation of the elites that opposed the ideology taught at the public sector, but also for granting education to a sector of the population that is left without access from the public sector. Therefore, private education has become a complex topic of study. In general, it has been found that private higher education institutions enjoy a high degree of autonomy, as regulations do not seem to limit very much their ability to act and self-govern. While they enjoy higher degrees of autonomy in the financial, organizational and staffing dimensions, the academic dimension is the most constrained. Despite this high degree of autonomy, most participants do not consider that regulations have been the reason for the proliferation of low quality education institutions, as the literature has pointed out; on the contrary, participants concur that the lack of access is the main reason for their proliferation

Attilio Maseri, Italian cardiologist of universal value

Attilio Maseri, Italian cardiologist of universal valu

Synthesis and electrochemical study of new 3-(hydroxyphenyl)benzo[f]coumarins

New hydroxyl substituted 3-arylbenzo[f]coumarins (compounds 6–10) have been designed and synthesized. Their electrochemical redox mechanisms, and the influence of one or two hydroxyl groups, in different positions on the coumarin scaffold, was investigated by cyclic, differential pulse and square wave voltammetry, at a glassy carbon electrode, at different pHs, and a comparative study was performed. The structural information obtained enabled a better understanding of the structure/electrochemical relationship of hydroxyl substituted 3-arylbenzo[f]coumarins, compounds with important antioxidant properties

A Neighborhood Analysis of Tree Growth and Survival in a Hurricane-Driven Tropical Forest

We present a likelihood-based regression method that was developed to analyze the effects of neighborhood competitive interactions and hurricane damage on tree growth and survival. The purpose of the method is to provide robust parameter estimates for a spatially explicit forest simulator and to gain insight into the processes that drive the patterns of species abundance in tropical forests. We test the method using census data from the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot in Puerto Rico and describe effects of the spatial configuration, sizes, and species of neighboring trees on the growth and survival of 12 dominant tree species representing a variety of life history strategies. Variation in size-dependent growth and mortality suggests a complex relationship between size, growth, and survival under different regimes of light availability. Crowding effects on growth and survival appear to be idiosyncratic to each individual species, and with the exception of pioneers, there is little commonality among species that share similar life histories. We also explain the implications of differential susceptibility to hurricane damage on species' growth and survival and on their ability to respond to damage to neighboring trees. Tree species in the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot differ strikingly in both their susceptibility to hurricane disturbance and the nature of their recovery from wind disturbance, through response of both adult plants and juveniles to enhanced resource availability. At the stand level, intense competitive thinning of densely packed saplings that grew after hurricane damage accounted for the majority of post-hurricane mortality, particularly for shade-intolerant species. At the individual species level, effects of previous hurricane damage on growth and survival depended primarily on variation in the quantity and quality of hurricane damage sustained by target species and their interaction with life history characteristics of these individual species. Finally, we compare models that make different assumptions about the effects of competing species on tree growth and survival (e.g., equivalence of competitors vs. distinct species-specific effects). Size effects alone could not account for growth and survival for the majority of target species. Our results also demonstrate that competing species have distinct per capita effects on growth of dominant target species. In contrast, we found moderate support for a model that assumed functional equivalence of competitors on survival

Abrupt Change in Forest Height along a Tropical Elevation Gradient Detected Using Airborne Lidar

Most research on vegetation in mountain ranges focuses on elevation gradients as climate gradients, but elevation gradients are also the result of geological processes that build and deconstruct mountains. Recent findings from the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico, have raised questions about whether erosion rates that vary due to past tectonic events and are spatially patterned in relation to elevation may drive vegetation patterns along elevation gradients. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology to observe forest height over the Luquillo Mountain Range. We show that models with different functional forms for the two prominent bedrock types best describe the forest height-elevation patterns. On one bedrock type there are abrupt decreases in forest height with elevation approximated by a sigmoidal function, with the inflection point near the elevation of where other studies have shown there to be a sharp change in erosion rates triggered by a tectonic uplift event that began approximately 4.2 My ago. Our findings are consistent with broad geologically mediated vegetation patterns along the elevation gradient, consistent with a role for mountain building and deconstructing processes

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns